Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Are we in a social media bubble?

There is an interesting article in today' Wall Street Journal. It discusses the nature of fads, crazes or bubbles as they have been called. At the turn of the century there was the dot-com bubble, the author reminds us of the "Beanie Baby" bubble, the housing bubble and the "hand bag" bubble.

The author lists five signs of an approaching bubble and I think it is interesting how social media seems to fit perfectly into these buckets. Take a look:
  1. Fertile Ground: "The biggest bubbles appear to develop during periods of rapid and radical innovation, which may leave us more vulnerable to accepting the bizarre rationalizations that often accompany financial speculation," writes author Karen Blumenthal. There are hundreds of people looking for ways to make money fast on Twitter, Facebook and MySpace.
  2. Getting On-Board: more obvious thing about booms is that lots and lots of people get on board, pushing prices up. Initial skepticism gives way to curiosity and then escalates into a kind of frenzy, a feeling that you may be the only person on the planet who isn't part of the fun, and you'd better scramble to get in, says Blumenthal. Have you seen the latest numbers on Twitter and Facebook growth?
  3. Ignoring Warnings: Right now we are so deeply rooted in the on-boarding stage it may be too early to recognize the dangers of social media. But where opportunity lies so does risk
  4. Greed Takes Over: Anyone who has a following on Twitter has been followed by someone that insists they are making thousands of dollars if not hundreds of thousands every month online. Simply search for how to make money online and you will see greed is taking over quickly.
  5. The After-Party: This is the life lesson stage says Blumenthal. "The party may be dangerous, but trying to keep the party going—the after-party, if you will—is what really hurts you." Will the hangover from the social media blitz be too much for us to handl as communicators or are we strategic enough to see the party coming to an end?
It is too early to predict where we are in this Web 2.0 (or is it 3.0 now?) world. But being aware of the mentality that has gotten us into trouble in the past is the best way to avoid trouble in the future. I am interested to know you thoughts. Please post them here.

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